[2023-01-14] 华盛顿邮报 - 观点：日本对俄罗斯和中国的反应是理性的。 这仅仅是个开始。
![]() ![]() It takes a lot to break Japan’s post-1945 stance of reticence and restraint in military matters. But China and Russia have accomplished just that — by convincing Japanese leaders that they need “counterstrike” capability to protect themselves against growing threats.
要打破日本 1945 年后在军事问题上保持沉默和克制的立场，需要付出很多努力。 但中国和俄罗斯已经做到了这一点——说服日本领导人他们需要“反击”能力来保护自己免受日益增长的威胁。
Japan’s hawkish new stance will be on display Friday at a White House meeting between visiting Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and President Biden. The Japanese leader will explain his decision in November to seek parliamentary approval to spend 2 percent of gross domestic product annually on defense, roughly doubling what Japan has been spending.
日本的鹰派新立场将于周五在来访的日本首相岸田文雄和拜登总统在白宫举行的会议上展示。 这位日本领导人将在 11 月解释他的决定以便寻求国会批准每年将国内生产总值的 2% 用于国防，这大约是日本一直以来支出的两倍。
“This is an inflection point” for Asia, argues Kurt Campbell, who oversees regional policy for Biden’s National Security Council. It moves Japan from reliance on its own soft power and U.S. weapons to a real military partnership. And it redraws the security map, framing a NATO-like alliance of containment in the Indo-Pacific as well as the Atlantic.
为拜登的国家安全委员会负责地区政策的库尔特坎贝尔认为，对亚洲来讲“这是一个转折点”。 它使日本从依赖自身软实力和美国武器转变为真正的军事伙伴关系。 它还重新绘制了安全地图，在印太和大西洋构建了一个类似北约的遏制联盟。
Why is Japan taking this step toward remilitarization? One galvanizing moment for Japanese leaders, U.S. officials say, was when China and Russia flew six heavy bombers near Japan in a joint exercise on May 24, as Tokyo was hosting a meeting of the “Quad” partnership of Australia, India, Japan and the United States.
为什么日本要朝着重新军事化迈出这一步？ 美国官员说，对日本领导人来说，一个激励人心的时刻是中国和俄罗斯在 5 月 24 日的一次联合演习中在日本附近飞行了 6 架重型轰炸机，当时东京正在主持澳大利亚、印度、日本和美国的“四方”伙伴关系会议。
Japan expressed “serious concerns” about the flights. But China and Russia did it again in late November, sending two Chinese heavy bombers and two Russian planes over the Sea of Japan. This time Tokyo expressed “severe concerns,” again with no apparent response.
日本对这些飞行表示“严重关切”。 但中国和俄罗斯在 11 月下旬又来一次，派出两架中国重型轰炸机和两架俄罗斯飞机飞越日本海。 这一次，东京再次表达了“严重关切”，但没有做出明显回应。
Another wake-up call came in August, when China fired five missiles into Japan’s “exclusive economic zone” during a spasm of military exercises after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) visited Taiwan. “We have protested strongly through diplomatic channels,” said Nobuo Kishi, Japan’s former defense minister who now serves as a special adviser to the prime minister. The lesson was that “nothing in the Taiwan Strait stays in the Taiwan Strait,” Rahm Emanuel, the U.S. ambassador to Tokyo, told me in an interview.
8 月又敲响了警钟，当时众议院议长南希佩洛西（加利福尼亚州民主党人）访问台湾后，中国在一系列军事演习中向日本的“专属经济区”发射了五枚导弹。 “我们已通过外交渠道提出强烈抗议，”现任首相特别顾问的日本前防卫大臣岸信夫说。 美国驻东京大使拉姆·伊曼纽尔 (Rahm Emanuel) 在接受采访时告诉我，教训是“台湾海峡的一切都不会留在台湾海峡”。
Japan has moved from talk to action over the past year. A big reason is shock over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, coming less than a month after Russia and China announced a “no limits” partnership. “The world has changed in a dramatic fashion, and the Japanese know it,” Emanuel said.
在过去的一年里，日本已经从谈话走向行动。 一个很大的原因是对俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的震惊，距离俄罗斯和中国宣布“无限制”伙伴关系才不到一个月。 “世界发生了戏剧性的变化，日本人知道这一点，”伊曼纽尔说。
Kishida, though a new and politically weak prime minister, moved aggressively to support Ukraine. Japan quickly sent military and humanitarian assistance, and in March it successfully lobbied eight of the 10 ASEAN countries to back a U.N. resolution condemning Russia’s invasion.
岸田虽然是一位政治上软弱的新首相，却积极采取行动支持乌克兰。 日本迅速提供军事和人道主义援助，并在 3 月成功游说 10 个东盟国家中的 8 个国家支持联合国谴责俄罗斯入侵的决议。
“Kishida understood early that the Russian attack on Ukraine represented a blending of the Indo-Pacific and European worlds. He saw a fundamental challenge to world order,” says Campbell. So, rather than adopt the usual approach of relying on the United States to fix matters, he explains, Kishida “decided to make common cause with Europe.”
“岸田很早就明白，俄罗斯对乌克兰的袭击代表了印太和欧洲世界的融合。 他看到了对世界秩序的根本挑战，”坎贝尔说。 因此，他解释说，岸田并没有采取依赖美国解决问题的通常做法，而是“决定与欧洲共同努力”。
The heart of Japan’s security problem is missiles, and not just from China; North Korea regularly tests ballistic missiles that overfly Japanese territory. A decade ago, Japan invested heavily in antimissile technologies, hoping that this would blunt the threat. But several years ago, Japanese military planners realized that an adversary could overwhelm their missile-defense shield. They needed something more.
日本安全问题的核心是导弹，而且不仅仅是来自中国； 还有朝鲜定期测试飞越日本领土的弹道导弹。 十年前，日本在反导弹技术上投入巨资，希望这能削弱威胁。 但几年前，日本军事规划人员意识到对手可以摧毁他们的导弹防御系统。 他们需要更多东西。
The “counterstrike” strategy should offer that. The United States will provide Japan with 400 to 500 Tomahawk missiles that can hit missile sites in China or North Korea. Japan also wants to protect its space-based defense assets, which include satellite-guided bombs and a Japanese version of the U.S. Global Positioning System, from China’s expanding antisatellite arsenal. So, the Biden administration will extend the long-standing U.S. security treaty with Japan to cover attacks in space.
“反击”战略应该提供这一点。 美国将向日本提供 400 至 500 枚战斧导弹，这些导弹可以击中中国或朝鲜的导弹基地。 日本还希望保护其天基防御资产，包括卫星制导炸弹和日本版的美国全球定位系统，免受中国不断扩大的反卫星武器库的攻击。 因此，拜登政府将延长美国与日本的长期安全条约，以涵盖太空攻击。
Japan’s new militancy will inevitably trigger a backlash in China, where there’s a deep antipathy to Japanese military power dating back to Japanese occupation in the 1930s and early ’40s. If you doubt it, just visit the museum in Nanjing that documents Japan’s savage assault on the city in 1937. Japan has disdained power projection since its defeat in 1945 partly in deference to such historical memories.
日本新的好战精神将不可避免地在中国引发强烈反对，中国对日本军事力量的强烈反感可以追溯到 1930 年代和 40 年代初期的日本占领时期。 如果您对此有疑问，只需参观记录了 1937 年日本野蛮进攻这座城市的南京博物馆。自 1945 年战败以来，日本一直蔑视力量投射(政治学上的术语，指一个国家可以在远离本土的地方表现出武力和其他一些威胁。)，部分原因是出于对此类历史记忆的尊重。
Japan is still a deeply peaceful country. But the weight of the past is easing, and younger Japanese want a stronger military to deal with belligerent neighbors. A poll last summer by Jiji Press showed that 75 percent of respondents between 18 and 29 supported increased defense spending, and over 60 percent of that age group favored Japanese “counterstrike capabilities.”
日本仍然是一个非常和平的国家。 但过去的压力正在减轻，年轻的日本人希望拥有更强大的军队来对付好战的邻国。 时事通讯社(日本两大通讯社之一)去年夏天的一项民意调查显示，75% 的 18 至 29 岁受访者支持增加国防开支，而该年龄组中超过 60% 的人支持日本的“反恐能力”。
China is in the early stages of what might be the biggest military buildup in history. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine effectively ended the post-Cold War era. Japan is reacting to those developments rationally. But beware: As the global order frays, the chain of action and reaction is only beginning.
中国正处于可能是历史上最大规模军事集结的早期阶段。 俄罗斯入侵乌克兰实际上结束了后冷战时代。 日本正在理性地应对这些事态发展。 但要注意：随着全球秩序的瓦解，一系列行动和反应才刚刚开始。标红字体均为楼主更改，与原文作者无关。请广大榴友理智的，深呼吸三次，闭目养神15秒后回答：“未来中日大战，你是否愿意上战场为国争光，一雪前耻，为中华民族报仇雪恨？”
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